Senate Republicans Falsely Cite CBO
Senate Republican Conference:
[Republican.Senate.Gov, 3/8/10]
Senate Republicans Falsely Cite CBO
While the Congressional Budget Office did provide the Republican-cited disclaimer about out year budget projections, it also provided a "rough outlook for the decade following the 10-year budget window." That "rough outlook" is clearly what Secretary Sebelius was referring to.
Congressional Budget Office Estimates Bill Will Reduce Deficit By 1% Of GDP. According to the Congressional Budget Office's letter to Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV):
Effects on the Deficit. CBO has developed a rough outlook for the decade following the 10-year budget window by grouping the elements of the legislation into broad categories and assessing the rate at which the budgetary impact of each of those broad categories is likely to increase over time. The categories are as follows:
- The gross cost of the coverage expansions, consisting of exchange subsidies, the net costs of expanded eligibility for Medicaid, and tax credits for employers: Those provisions have an estimated cost of $199 billion in 2019, and that cost is growing at about 8 percent per year toward the end of the 10-year budget window. As a rough approximation, CBO assumes continued growth at about that rate during the following decade.
- The excise tax on high-premium insurance plans: JCT estimates that the provision would generate about $35 billion in additional revenues in 2019 and expects that receipts would grow by roughly 10 percent to 15 percent per year in the following decade.
- Other taxes and other effects of coverage provisions on revenues: Increased revenues from those provisions are estimated to total $74 billion in 2019 and are growing at about 7 percent per year toward the end of the budget window. As a rough approximation, CBO assumes continued growth at about that rate during the following decade.
- Changes to the Medicare program and changes to Medicaid and CHIP other than those associated directly with expanded insurance coverage: Savings from those provisions are estimated to total $106 billion in 2019, and CBO expects that, in combination, they would increase by nearly 15 percent per year in the next decade.
All told, the legislation incorporating the manager's amendment would reduce the federal deficit by $16 billion in 2019, CBO and JCT estimate. In the decade after 2019, the gross cost of the coverage expansion would probably exceed 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), but the added revenues and cost savings would probably be greater. [Congressional Budget Office, 12/19/09; emphasis added]
PolitiFact: "According to the CBO's latest numbers, GDP will be $22.5 trillion in 2020." According to PolitiFact.com, "According to the CBO's latest numbers, GDP will be $22.5 trillion in 2020. You can do a rough estimate and find that you could get to roughly $1 trillion over 20 years, especially if you lean closer to one-half of 1 percent rather than a quarter." [PolitiFact.com, 1/27/10]